A Look at Battleground States for the 2020 Presidential Election
As the results of the 2020 presidential election draw nearer and voters turn to the polls, the end of this closely ran race for the Presidency is nearing it’s conclusion. Several states throughout the Union are running close races within a few percentage points between the two Presidential candidates, incumbent Donald Trump and challenger Joe Biden. These states could mean winning for either candidate.
These states include Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, and perhaps most surprisingly, Texas, among other traditional swing states.
For many elections, Florida has been one of the most important states to win. Infamously, it was the state that ultimately decided the 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore in an extremely close race. This state’s 29 electoral college votes could be a big step towards the White House for either candidate. According to a recent Reuters poll, Florida is polling 50% for Biden and 46% for Trump.
Arizona is running a fairly tight race for it’s 11 electoral votes. Reuters is polling Arizona at 49% for Biden and 47% for Trump. Similarly to Florida, Trump did win Arizona in the 2016 election.
ln Georgia, the election has been similarly contested. This southern state holds 16 electoral college votes and according to fivethirtyeight.com, Trump holds a 1% lead over Biden in the polls as of November 3.
North Carolina is currently being predicted within just 1 percent as well. According to Reuters, Biden is drawing 49% of the vote compared to 48% for Trump, in the battle for the state’s 15 electoral votes. Through previous elections, North Carolina has traditionally gone to the Republicans, so Biden’s victory in this state could be a breakthrough for Democrats in the South.
Pennsylvania is once again proving to play a key role in a Presidential election. After Trump took the state’s 20 electoral votes in the 2016 election, polls are predicting this to be a closely fought race this year, as well. If Trump is able to flip the state red again, and take states such as Florida, Arizona and Georgia, it could bring the race to just 20 electoral votes. Reuters is predicting that Pennsylvania will go to Biden however with a 51 %to 44% win.
Texas is surprisingly being a closely fought race. The state is well known to being a strictly red state in terms of Presidential elections, as the last Democratic presidential candidate to win Texas was Jimmy Carter in 1976. However, this year Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight is showing that Trump only holds a 1 percent lead over Biden. Biden flipping Texas could mean a huge blow to the Republicans as they would lose their until now guaranteed 38 electoral votes from the state and could easily help Biden secure the victory on its own. Even if Trump manages to win in every other swing state.
Michigan and Wisconsin are also running fairly close races. These states hold 16 and 10 electoral votes, respectively. Currently, Reuters is predicting that Biden will take both states with a 52% to 42% lead in Michigan and then a 53% to 43% lead in Wisconsin.
Though some of the states mentioned above are known to be left leaning, Trump did manage to win all of these states in the 2016 election. According to 270towin.com, assuming that Texas remained red, Trump would need to flip Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania in order have a chance at winning.
The polls mentioned here are only predictions based off of early trends for the election. Voter turnout could be much stronger for one party than initially predicted. They are in no way concrete but they can offer a look into how close a race will be. And according to the polls, the 2020 election will have close races in several states that could go either way.
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