Swing State Roundup Part 1
With less than 30 days until the 2020 Presidential Election, margins are tightening up and both campaigns are forced to choose which states to focus on. If Joe Biden wants to win the election, he is going to need to win some of the states that Donald Trump won in 2016. If Donald Trump wants to get reelected, he is going to need to keep Biden from stealing the states he won in 2016. In this column, I want to highlight six swing states that I think are going to be important in 2020, while also taking a look at some of their senate races.
Nationally
We all know that in 2016, Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the presidential election. Donald Trump received 306 electoral college votes while Hillary Clinton received only 232, despite winning the popular vote. In 2016, the national popular vote saw Hillary Clinton win 48%, with Donald Trump winning 45.9%. While Joe Biden has had a consistent lead in national polls this year, repeating Hillary Clinton’s popular vote victory is not enough to win the presidency. To win back the White House for the Democrats, Joe Biden would have to get to that all-important number of electoral college votes—270.
Arizona
The first swing state I want to talk about is Arizona. Arizona has gone to the Republicans in every presidential election since 1996, but this year, Joe Biden has consistently led in the polls since March. As of October 5, Biden is up by 4.3% with the race sitting at 49% to 44.7%. While historically a Republican-won state in presidential elections, this data suggests that Arizona has become an important swing state for 2020. One potential factor in this state is the ongoing senate race between incumbent Martha McSally and Democratic challenger Mark Kelly. Kelly is currently leading in the polls sitting 11% above McSally, who was chosen by the governor to replace John McCain when he died in 2018.
Florida
After electing Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Florida voted red in 2016 casting their electoral college votes in favor of Donald Trump. In 2016, Donald Trump won 48.6% of Florida’s votes compared to Hillary Clinton’s 47.4%, meaning Trump won the state by the relatively narrow margin of 1.2%. This year, Biden has consistently led Trump in Florida polls since April. Currently, Biden leads Trump 48.6% to 45.2%, which means the race has actually tightened up. At one point in late June, Biden was leading Trump by 7.4%—an 8.6% swing toward the Democrats from the 2016 election. Since June, Biden’s lead has decreased to 3.4% which is much closer and certainly still subject to change going into the last month of the 2020 presidential election.
Michigan
Until 2016, Michigan had gone to the Democrats in every presidential election since 1992. Donald Trump managed to flip this historically democratic state in 2016, winning 47.3% to 47%. Three-tenths of one percent is much closer than the current margin that shows Biden polling 7.5% ahead of Trump. One potential factor of this 7.2% swing toward the Democrats may be that in 2016, Gary Johnson won 3.6% of the vote as the nominee for the Libertarian Party. Michigan also has a senate race on the ballot in 2020 between Democratic incumbent, Gary Peters and Republican challenger, John James. Peters currently leads James in the polls 50% to 43% which could also be playing a factor in the size of Biden’s current lead in the state. In this election, it would take an aggressive swing toward the Republicans in the last 30 days for Donald Trump to have a real chance of retaining Michigan.
In my next column, I will take a closer look at three more important swing states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina.
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